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Is it me, or has it felt like Milestone Month in baseball’s never-ending history class?

There was Freddie Freeman’s 300th homer … launched even as his 2,000th career hit was roaring right at us.

There was Nolan Arenado’s 1,000th career RBI … compiled in a little over 10 full seasons.

There was Gerrit Cole’s 2,000th strikeout … piled up in 150 fewer innings than Nolan Ryan.

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There was Kenley Jansen’s 400th save … racked up just days ahead of Craig Kimbrel (who’s currently sitting at 399).

Those are big round numbers, compiled by big-name players. But they’re more than mere moments for the trophy case. They’re also moments that make us think.

Are all of those players heading for a Baseball Hall of Fame induction weekend to call their own? What a fun question, right? So I dug into that topic last Friday on MLB Network.

Thoughts on @jaysonst’s list?  pic.twitter.com/O2M0eyqE29

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) May 23, 2023

Which active players are going to wind up in the Hall of Fame? I tried my best to answer that. The reactions have been streaming in ever since. Thanks for all your help!

But on live TV, there’s never enough time to explain all the thinking that goes into these lists. So this is my chance to explain it in enough depth that once America is finished reading, I’m confident there will be unanimous agreement, on everyone and everything, because that’s always how this works. Or not.

I divided this list into tiers. So here’s the list. Then we’ll dig in on how all these names got there.

IN RIGHT NOW

Mike Trout
Justin Verlander
Clayton Kershaw
Max Scherzer
Miguel Cabrera
Zack Greinke
Joey Votto

IN THE RED ZONE

Freddie Freeman
Paul Goldschmidt
Bryce Harper
Nolan Arenado
Mookie Betts
Manny Machado

ON A PATH

Shohei Ohtani
Aaron Judge
Jose Altuve
Gerrit Cole
Juan Soto
Ronald Acuña Jr.

I WISH THERE WAS A PATH

Jacob deGrom
Adam Wainwright

GET BACK TO ME IN FIVE YEARS

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Wander Franco

USED TO BE IN THE RED ZONE

Craig Kimbrel
Kenley Jansen
Andrew McCutchen
Chris Sale
Evan Longoria

CASE NOT CLOSED

José Ramírez
J.T. Realmuto
Carlos Correa

Now let’s sink our teeth into how these names wound up on those lists.

The ‘In Right Now’ Club

VERLANDER, KERSHAW, SCHERZER — Anybody see a need to spend even 30 seconds “debating” these guys? They’re all three-time Cy Young Award winners. And every winner of at least three Cys who ever lived has a plaque in Cooperstown … except for Roger Clemens … because, well, you know.

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MIGGY — I think we can spend even less time on this one. Miguel Cabrera is one of the 10 greatest right-handed hitters ever — and no right-handed hitter in the 500-Homer/3,000-Hit Club has a slash line as good as this guy (.307/.383/.521). Got it? OK, next!

TROUT — He’s only 31, but this case is already closed. Trout whooshed past Joe DiMaggio in career homers this week (to 362). He just passed Ken Griffey Jr. in career Wins Above Replacement (to 83.9, according to Baseball Reference). He has already won more MVP awards (three) than Willie Mays (two) — and has nine top-five MVP finishes and more MVP Shares (based on his cumulative votes) than all but three players in history (Barry Bonds, Stan Musial and Albert Pujols — all of whom played twice as many seasons as him).

So Trout could retire on Memorial Day and still start writing his speech. I hope he doesn’t!

GREINKE — It’s amazing to me how shocked so many people were to learn Greinke is already a lock to get a plaque chiseled. But let’s keep this simple:

He’s one of the 20 best starting pitchers of the live-ball era. And basically, everyone who has had his career is in — except for Clemens and Curt Schilling (who both, in an alternate universe, would be no-doubt Hall of Famers). If you’re still a skeptic, here come Greinke’s Hall credentials:

Won one Cy Young Award (in 2009) … and had another season (2015) with a 1.66 ERA in which he somehow didn’t win a second Cy Young … two-time ERA champ … eight seasons on the Pitcher WAR top-10 leaderboard … 11 seasons on the strikeout/walk top-10 leaderboard … closing in on 225 wins and 3,000 strikeouts, with a 1.17 WHIP (10th in the live-ball era among pitchers who faced as many batters as him). So I’m not sure what some of you are missing out there. That’s a Hall of Famer!

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VOTTO — If you were shocked to learn Greinke is a sure Cooperstowner, I’m guessing you were equally shocked to see Joey Votto on the same list. But it’s the same principle:

Just like Greinke, everybody in history who has had Votto’s career is a Hall of Famer, unless … A) they’re a “performance enhancing drugs guy” … or B) they’re Todd Helton (who will be a Hall of Famer any election now). Let’s lay out the case for Votto:

First off, we’re talking about a seven-time league leader in on-base percentage. Only five other hitters in history can say that. Four of them are Ted Williams, Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb and Rogers Hornsby. The fifth is Barry Bonds. Is there a reason we celebrate batting average champs but not on-base champs? If there is, let’s mention something: It’s not 1963 anymore.

But let’s also measure the totality of Votto’s career. Behold the .297/.412/.513/.926 slash line, with 2,093 hits and 342 homers. Every modern player who has put up those numbers is in the Hall, with three exceptions: Helton (see above) and Barry Bonds/Manny Ramirez (see the “PED guy” note above). So let’s stop focusing on all the wrong stuff! Joey Votto: Hall of Famer. Already.

The ‘Red Zone’ Club

Two of these names were not like the others. Let’s discuss.

FREEMAN — Is Freddie Freeman already in? You could talk me into that. I had him on that “already in” list at one point, then talked myself out of it. He ended up on the “red zone” list. But don’t “at” me. I recognize how close he is. If he’s in the red zone, he’s at the 1-yard line.

An MVP award plus 10 straight seasons with a 130 OPS+ almost sealed the deal. That 2,000 Hit Club will just about finish the discussion. Every first baseman with his slash line, 300 homers and 2,000 hits is either in or will be in. So it doesn’t matter which side of the goal line Freeman is on. He just needs to keep doing what he’s doing. But isn’t that what he always does, every darned year?

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GOLDSCHMIDT — Paul Goldschmidt is another name I placed in the “already in” column at one point. Then I decided he still had ground to cover — but not much.

He has already passed the 60-win threshold on the Baseball Reference WAR list. And among all first basemen who have ever played, that’s a list full of Hall of Famers and mortal-lock Hall of Famers, with one exception: Mark McGwire.

Goldschmidt also has an MVP, three more top-three MVP finishes, four Gold Gloves and a spectacular history of durability and dependability. He just has work to do. He’s only at 1,806 career hits. And there’s no such thing as a 1,800-hit Hall of Fame first baseman — at least not among men whose careers started in the last 75 years.

So get back to me in 2025. We know where this is leading.

HARPER AND MOOKIE — Of course they’ll be Hall of Famers. Harper owns two MVP awards, a Rookie of the Year trophy and a home run title. Mookie has one MVP award, two MVP runner-up finishes, six Gold Gloves and an ability to impact a game with his bat, glove, legs, arm or baseball IQ. And both of these dudes are just 30, with many years to go.

But neither even has 1,400 hits yet. So they’ve arrived in the red zone. They just have to finish this drive.

ARENADO AND MACHADO — Scott Rolen just became a Hall of Fame third baseman. Adrián Beltré is coming right up. But before Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado are through, they’re in position to have better careers than either of them.

Arenado already has 10 Gold Gloves, three home run titles, four top-five MVP finishes and 52.9 career WAR. Machado also has four MVP top-fives, multiple Gold Gloves and 52.0 WAR. But 1,500 hits don’t get you onto the podium in Cooperstown. So they, too, just have to keep pushing across that goal line.

The ‘On a Path’ Club

OHTANI — It’s year six in MLB for the Greatest Shoh on Earth. So the rules don’t allow us to say Shohei Ohtani is a Hall of Famer … yet. But if something weird happens and he somehow doesn’t qualify for this Hall of Fame, can we just build an Ohtani Hall of Fame right next door? I’d visit it. He’s going down as the greatest something or other in baseball history. We just might have to invent a new word for it.

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JUDGE — He got a late start (debuting at age 24). So he’s 31 and still hasn’t reached 250 homers. (Henry Aaron was closing in on 400 at age 31.) And that means Judge needs to sustain this level of thunder for a long time. But he’s the (literally) larger-than-life captain of the Yankees. So what if he has three or four more 50-homer seasons in him? Will Hall voters even care if he stalls out at, say, 465 home runs? I’ll guess no on that!

ALTUVE — Is this guy’s case complicated, or what? Not so long ago, he wasn’t just on a path to Cooperstown. He was on a path to being Derek Jeter Lite. Now Altuve is in his age-33 season, with a .307 career average, three batting titles and more than 1,900 hits — with a legit shot at 3,000. But …

He’s also an Astro. And will any 2017 Astros hitter ever earn the trust (and votes) of 75 percent of this electorate — even a fellow who reportedly wasn’t into trash-can pounding? Who the heck knows anymore.

COLE — I understand that he has a lot of trips to the mound ahead before we can get serious about this. But did you know Gerrit Cole already has had five seasons with an ERA+ of 133 or better? That’s one more than Steve Carlton or Bob Gibson.

Did you know that, through his age-32 season, only one other pitcher in history had as many strikeouts (2,000), as good a winning percentage (.655), as good a WHIP (1.10) and a strikeout rate even remotely in the range of what Cole has now (10.5 per nine innings)? That pitcher: Pedro Martinez.

On the other hand, no pitcher with 135 career wins can say he’s an obvious Hall of Famer … yet. But if Cole maintains anywhere near this level of dominance for a few more years, the road to Cooperstown sits right there in front of him.

SOTO AND ACUÑA — Look, they’re both so young, I know this is ridiculous. Soto is 24. Acuña is 25. Neither has even made it into the 700 Hit Club yet. So they’re both many hundreds of hits away from any serious deliberations about their Hall worthiness. Nevertheless …

Acuña’s No. 1 most similar player on Baseball Reference is Soto. Soto’s No. 1 most similar player is Acuña. So we have every reason to place them as a tag team on this list.

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Acuña might be the closest approximation to Rickey Henderson we’ve ever seen. Soto might be doing the best impression of a young Ted Williams we’ve ever seen. I’ll concede that they’ve both veered off that track from time to time. But when you’re this good this young, history says you’re a Hall of Famer waiting to happen. Now it’s up to both of them to make it happen.

The ‘I Wish There Was a Path’ Club

At times I wonder how Jacob deGrom and Adam Wainwright could possibly have missed out on any of these lists. So let’s dive in on that.

DEGROM — It isn’t humanly possible for any pitcher to be more dominant than the past five years of Jacob deGrom. A 191 ERA+? … A 0.86 WHIP? … Seven times as many strikeouts as walks? … Twice as many strikeouts as hits? … Who does that? Who has ever done that?

So I’d like to spin that into a case for this guy. Except … what do we do about the 60 missed starts in that span? What do we do about the part where he’s going to turn 35 next month … and still owns “only” 84 career wins? I know wins ain’t what they used to be. But where’s his path even to Sandy Koufax’s career won-lost record (165-87)? So, sorry. Barring something shocking in his late 30s, deGrom’s road to Cooperstown looks closed.

WAINWRIGHT — I wish there was some way to make a compelling case for Adam Wainwright, if only because he’s awesome and because of all he has represented for the Cardinals over these last 19 seasons. He does have two second-place Cy Young Award finishes and two thirds. So maybe, if he was a multi-time Cy Young winner, this would be easier.

But Hall expert Jay Jaffe ranks him as only the 125th-greatest starting pitcher of all time, according to his starter-JAWS computations. Right below Wainwright are Jamie Moyer and Carlos Zambrano. Not far ahead of him are Cliff Lee and David Wells.

All four of those guys had their moments — just not enough of them to find their way to that podium in Cooperstown. And I think that sums up Adam Wainwright’s case.

The ‘Get Back to me in Five Years’ Club

I might have gotten more blowback on these next two names than any others. So let’s explain.

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VLADDY — He’s just entering his age-24 season, and here is Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s career slash line: .285/.358/.503/.861. Let’s say he hits 30 homers again this season. (He has eight now.)

Eight retired players in history had that slash line (or better) and that many home runs (or more) through their age-24 season. One is Albert Pujols, who is already ticketed for Cooperstown. One is Alex Rodriguez, whose case is a bad novel I have no interest in writing. The others are Mickey Mantle, Joe DiMaggio, Frank Robinson, Ken Griffey Jr., Mel Ott and Jimmie Foxx.

Moral of the story: When you’re this good this young, there’s already a spot on the wall in Cooperstown where your plaque should hang … unless you mess it up. So how did Vladdy end up on this list? That’s how!

WANDER — Is it a stretch to put Wander Franco in this group? Of course. But bear with me. He’s just starting his age-22 season. His career slash line should also get your attention: .284/.342/.451/.793. If he just stays healthy, he’ll be somewhere in the neighborhood of 30-plus homers and 110 extra-base hits before he even turns 23.

Now here are all the retired middle infielders who did all that through their age-22 season: Cal Ripken Jr. … and A-Rod … and that’s it. Let’s say this again: When anyone is this good and this productive this young, he’s already plaque-gallery material. Will that be true five years from now? That’s why this list exists. We’ll get back to you on that.

The ‘Used to be in the Red Zone’ Club

They were on the move … until they weren’t. They were in prime position … until they weren’t. Not so long ago, we thought all of these men were bound for upstate New York. Now they look like they’ll wind up on the not-quite-a-HOF end of Hall of Fame voting.

A reminder: It’s no insult to say anyone was not quite a Hall of Famer. This list comes with profound respect for their careers and everything about them.

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JANSEN AND KIMBREL — I got lots of complaints about my assessment of these two, too. I get it. I agonized quite a bit. I vote for Billy Wagner. Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel are incredibly comparable to Wagner, although neither has done it quite as long as him.

But there was no drop-off in Wagner’s level of dominance, from the start of his career to the finish, when he had a 1.43 ERA in his final big-league season. That hasn’t been true with Kimbrel and Jansen, although they’re both pitching well at the moment.

There’s one more issue, however: Kimbrel’s Red Sox won the 2018 World Series. They didn’t trust him enough to pitch in the World Series clincher. Jansen’s Dodgers won the 2020 World Series. He, too, wasn’t asked to pitch in the game that wrapped up that World Series.

All right, I know Wagner wasn’t Mariano Jr. in the postseason in his day, either. But those memories of Kimbrel and Jansen have stuck with me. I can’t get past them. I reserve the right to change my mind. Their stories are still being written. I promise to pay attention.

McCUTCHEN AND LONGORIA — In the new Bill James Handbook from Sports Info Solutions, James rolls out a new metric called the Hall of Fame Value Standard. Its goal is to measure the impact of every season of a player’s career, then add them all together to assess his Hall credentials.

James set a 500 score as the “target” for anyone aspiring to the Hall. Then he ranked virtually all veteran players, grouping them by age. Atop the age-36 list: Evan Longoria, with 483.1. Atop the age-35 list: Andrew McCutchen, at 499.2. (Longoria and McCutchen are now 37 and 36, respectively.)

To be clear, James wasn’t arguing that anyone who made it beyond 500 was a certain Hall of Famer, only that it means they have a case worth considering. So what about McCutchen and Longoria? I considered them long and hard.

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For the first half of their careers, they were easily among the best players in the sport at their positions. But over the second half, they’ve both been barely above league-average hitters, with declining defensive value. Add it all up, and I think they, too, are in that not-quite-a-HOF group. I admire them both. I just don’t see myself voting for them.

SALE — Chris Sale in his 20s: 103-62, with a 144 ERA+ and 1.03 WHIP. He was in the conversation for best pitcher in history who never won a Cy Young Award. And he was bound for Cooperstown, until …

These past five seasons happened. Here’s Sale since he threw the final pitch of the 2018 World Series (aka., in his 30s): 15-15, a 112 ERA+, a 1.15 WHIP and 70 missed starts. So basically, he was in the Red Zone … and then took four straight sacks.

The ‘Case not Closed’ Club

Finally, here come three players who, frankly, intrigue me. I don’t think they fit in any of these other groups. But they belong in this discussion somewhere. I could expand this club to a much larger list of players. I just didn’t want to conclude this column without mentioning …

JOSÉ RAMÍREZ — He’s 30 years old. He’s the centerpiece of his franchise in Cleveland. And while I didn’t think it was accurate to say he’s on a Hall of Fame “path,” he’s also impossible to ignore.

Since 2016, Ramírez has spun off five seasons worth 4.8 WAR or more. That’s as many as Trout, Arenado, Goldschmidt, Mookie, Judge and Francisco Lindor. Nobody in the sport has more. So if Ramírez keeps this up for a few more years, he’s in lofty company.

J.T. REALMUTO — I came really close to including Realmuto in the “On a Path” Club. I couldn’t quite get there. On one hand, he’s 32 and still has accumulated “only” 31.0 WAR. On the other hand, that feels too low.

How long has he been in the Best All-Around Catcher in Baseball debate? Five years? Eight years? There’s not much argument that he has been the best defensive catcher in the sport for most of those years. He’s also among the best offensive catchers in the sport. And he goes to the post so much, no other catcher is within 100 games caught of him over those last eight seasons.

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I’m not sure why WAR has always been an imperfect way to measure catchers. But that feels especially true in his case. What Adley Rutschman aspires to be, Realmuto already is.

CARLOS CORREA — I could have included just about any of the marquee shortstops in this group: Lindor … Trea Turner … Corey Seager … Xander Bogaerts. But Correa is still just 28. And once upon a time, his production through age 22 was in the same neighborhood as Wander Franco’s.

So he’s young enough and talented enough to craft a Hall of Fame career. And he has it in him. Then again, even if that happens, you think it’ll come up that he was an Astro when those trash can lids were clanging? It was all complicated enough that I bumped him off the “On a Path” list.

But don’t forget about him. Only eight shortstops in history accumulated 40 WAR by age 28. (Correa is at 39.7.) You know who wasn’t one of them? Some guy named Derek Jeter.

(Top photo of Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt: Brandon Sloter / Icon Sportswire / Associated Press)

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